This has already been the most competitive, most surprising and most entertaining Africa Cup of Nations in decades.
Supposed title contenders have been eliminated in the group stages, with unfancied nations making them look foolish.
As the tournament enters the knockout stages, Daniel Storey predicts how each of the last-16 ties will unfold.
Is this the time when the big boys finally deliver?
All kick-offs are UK time.
Angola vs Namibia
Angola are one of the most fascinating nations left in this competition. Currently ranked 28th in Africa in Fifa’s rankings (although that will change after the tournament), five of the starting XI for their final group match play their football domestically at Petro de Luanda, a club that was suspended from all domestic football for two years in September over match-fixing allegations.
And yet Angola topped Group D, taking advantage of Algeria’s collapse and Burkina Faso’s lack of goalscorers to take seven points and earn a plum tie in the last-16 against unfancied Namibia. They will be favourites to win a knockout match at Afcon for the first time in their history, having previously lost quarter-finals (before the tournament expansion) to Ghana and Egypt. Namibia should be less of a challenge.
That said, Namibia are a comparatively unknown entity here and that makes them slightly dangerous. Only four of the 23-man squad play their football outside southern Africa (in Malaysia, Kosovo (two) and at Derby County). Beating Tunisia was not just Namibia’s first ever win at this tournament – after nine winless matches – but the biggest result in their history. Now there’s nothing to lose.
Prediction: Angola’s feel-good tournament continues, with a semi-comfortable win – 2-0
Nigeria vs Cameroon
Saturday 27 January, 8pm
Nigeria’s inability to beat Equatorial Guinea may have cost them the chance to win Group A, but things have potentially landed very nicely indeed. The luck of the draw (second place facing another second-placed side in the last-16) plus Angola’s shock success in Group D means Nigeria have a very good shot of a semi-final place despite not hitting their straps yet. They won two group games thanks to a penalty and an own goal.
Cameroon are lucky to be here at all. They trailed against Guinea (before eventually drawing), lost comfortably to Senegal and then required an 87th-minute own goal, a 91st-minute winner and a 95th-minute, VAR-disallowed Gambia goal to survive group-stage elimination. Rigobert Song has been unable to repeat the feats of his early tenure, when Cameroon eliminated Algeria in World Cup qualifying and then beat Brazil in Qatar.
In the groups, Cameroon preferred slow possession, while Nigeria were largely happy to play direct football and look to use the pace of their strikers on the break. This attacking group should be the best at this tournament and Victor Osimhen, Samuel Chukwueze and Ademola Lookman aren’t seeing enough of the ball. Having got over the scare of their first group game, it is time for Nigeria to imprint themselves on this tournament.
Prediction: Nigeria continue to play it too safe, but still have enough – 2-1
Equatorial Guinea vs Guinea
ABIDJAN, IVORY COAST - JANUARY 18: EMILIO NSUE LOPEZ of Equatorial Guinea celebrates the goal of JOSE ANTONIO MIRANDA BOACHO during the TotalEnergies CAF Africa Cup of Nations group stage match between Equatorial Guinea and Guinea-Bissau at on January 18, 2024 in Abidjan, Ivory Coast.
Sunday 28 January, 5pm
Cape Verde may be offering a strong challenge, but Equatorial Guinea are the surprise success story of Afcon over the last 15 years. They reached the quarter-finals in 2012 and finished fourth in 2015, albeit both when hosting. In 2021 they finished second in the group and beat Mali on penalties before losing to Senegal, but few expected them to win Group A in such style ahead of Nigeria and hosts Ivory Coast.
To put this squad into perspective, their captain and top goalscorer is Emilio Nsue, who scored four goals in 106 league games in England for Middlesbrough and Birmingham City and now plays his football in the third tier of Spain. The rest of the squad is dotted around lesser European nations (Moldova, Andorra, Romania, Czech Republic) or in the second or third tiers of major league systems.
Guinea are here because they beat Gambia and held on against Cameroon with 10 men. If they can replicate the performance in that latter game, they are good enough to go through here. But they are badly lacking a goal threat (Naby Keita is the top scorer in the squad, with 12 in 53 caps). Given their opponents scored eight times in two games against Guinea-Bissau and Ivory Coast, that firepower will surely prove too much.
Prediction: Equatorial Guinea will have too much, confidence high and forwards firing – 2-0.
Egypt vs DR Congo
Sunday 28 January, 8pm
How have Egypt managed this? They failed to win any of their three group games, despite being favourites to win Group B. They required a last-minute equaliser against Mozambique, two equalisers against Ghana and another against Cape Verde. They lost their star player (and only world-class talent) to injury. And yet, by finishing second in the group they have engineered a path of DR Congo then Equatorial Guinea/Guinea to reach a semi-final.
Were we being generous, we would commend Egypt for overcoming the loss of Mohamed Salah and conclude that being able to stay in matches is decent preparation for the knockout stages. This is a team that came second at the last Afcon by scoring twice in 480 knockout minutes. If any team is happy to do it the hard way, it is Egypt.
But DR Congo have a shot at something special here. They, like Egypt, are yet to win a game and haven’t even led in any match at Afcon so far. But with both other north African nations finishing bottom of their group, and with Salah missing, there is a growing feeling that Egypt are vulnerable. Get Yoane Wissa and Silas around the box, take shots from distance and hope to grab a goal that they can defend, Egypt-style.
Prediction: A draw in 90 minutes, but Egypt’s knowhow gets it done in extra-time – 1-0
Cape Verde vs Mauritania
Monday 29 January, 5pm
The two surprise stories of this tournament meet with the chance to win a knockout match for the first time at Afcon. Cape Verde will be clear favourites having taken seven points in a daunting Group B, beating Ghana and scoring a last-second equaliser against Egypt to maintain an unlikely unbeaten record. A nation of just 500,000 people, Cape Verde are the new overachievers of African football.
But even Cape Verde have been outdone by Mauritania. They may be the beneficiaries of the enlarged format – one win against a rotten Algeria team took them through – but this is a nation who didn’t win a single game between 1995 and 2003 and were ranked 207 in the world in 2011. Their investment since has borne fruit over the last decade: first qualification, first victory, first knockout participation.
Cape Verde will be the favourites and Mauritania will look to defend in a low block and make the most of counter-attacking opportunities. This seems like one of the easier knockout games to call. The Blue Sharks roll on.
Prediction: Cape Verde have too much for Mauritania’s dogged resistance. A goal in each half – 2-0
Senegal vs Ivory Coast
Monday 29 January, 8pm
This has been a wretched tournament on the pitch for the hosts, who won their opening game and subsequently flunked. Losing to Nigeria was disappointing, but being beaten 4-0 by Equatorial Guinea in their own capital ranks as one of the worst results in Ivory Coast’s modern history. It caused the mid-tournament sacking of Jean-Louis Gasset as head coach; former Reading midfielder Emerse Fae is likely to take over as interim.
The punishment for Ivory Coast’s underachievement – they squeaked the last “best third place” entry into the knockouts – is a last-16 tie against a Senegal team who have basically picked up where they left off in Cameroon. Senegal won all three group games, scored eight goals and Sadio Mane hasn’t even really got going yet.
Senegal have scored early goals (twice taking the lead in the first 16 minutes) and late goals (three in the 86th minute or later). In between, they have been happy to control matches without expanding too much energy. Landing the hosts as reward for such dominance is slightly annoying, but Ivory Coast already look ready to lick their wounds and Senegal won’t be fearful.
Prediction: Senegal swat away the hosts to spark Ivory Coast’s root-and-branch review – 3-1
Mali vs Burkina Faso
Aston Villa’s Bertrrand Traore plays for Burkina Faso (Photo: Getty)
Tuesday 30 January, 5pm
A knockout tie between the two nations who many predicted might be the dark horses in this competition. Unfortunately for them, the winner is likely to face Senegal in the quarter-finals, which may well be where the run ends.
Mali have been functional so far at Afcon, beating South Africa fairly comfortably before grinding out draws against Tunisia and Namibia that they knew would ensure that they won the group.
Their control of possession has too frequently warped into sluggish attacking that makes creating clear cut chances difficult. Their biggest problem is no secret: the top international goalscorer in the squad is 29-year-old Moussa Doumbia, with six. Next comes a 20-year-old midfielder with nine caps.
Handily, that’s also the Burkinabe’s problem. They also scored three times in the group stage and Betrand Traore is the only player in their squad to reach double figures for international goals. It’s hard to work out why Traore has only started one game so far, but Burkina Faso need far more in the way of creativity. They have scored one non-penalty goal in the tournament.
Prediction: Tight and tense with little goalmouth action, but Mali edge it – 1-0
Morocco vs South Africa
Tuesday 30 January, 8pm
While both other north African nations collapsed in Ivory Coast, Morocco busily continued to establish themselves as the new force of the continent. Reaching the World Cup semi-final, the first African team ever to do so, made them the ones to beat here. Nobody has come close yet.
This draw has now opened up wonderfully for Walid Regragui’s side. Beat South Africa, which they should, and they will face one of Cape Verde or Mauritania in the quarter-finals. In the semis, likely the winner of Nigeria vs Cameroon (either of whom they would be heavy favourites to beat). There is a slight concern about a blunted attack in their second and third group games (beating Tanzania 3-0 was hardly a statement of intent), but Morocco are likely to grow into this competition.
As for South Africa, who really knows. They beat Namibia 4-0 but allowed a number of chances with the game in the balance. They held Tunisia to qualify in second, but were beaten by Mali, a game in which they missed chances of their own. With the squad almost entirely comprised of home-based players, there is clear unity (particularly between the eight Mamelodi Sundowns representatives). But are they really likely to trouble Morocco having stuttered their way through the groups?
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